Gold, Bitcoin, or Treasury Bills? The 2025 Safe Haven Showdown

When markets get choppy and headlines turn grim, investors instinctively look for “safe havens” to defend their portfolio. But in 2025, that term means something very different from what it did a decade ago. With inflation still hovering above the Fed’s target, global tensions rising, and stocks near record highs, the question often on investors’ minds is: where should you park your money when the world feels risky? Here at Harvest Wealth Partners, we hold a strong, evidence-backed conviction that the traditional investment landscape has shifted dramatically post-COVID. In our rapidly evolving economy, it is imperative that investors partner with an investment professional who researches, explores, and understands the varying risks associated with all asset classes, both new and old.

Today, we will discuss three very different assets and their unique roles for portfolio diversification in today’s economy: Gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. Treasury Bills.

Gold: The Timeless Refuge

Gold has been the go-to safe haven for thousands of years, and 2025 has been no exception. After briefly dipping in 2023, prices have climbed to record highs, driven primarily by strong central bank buying (particularly from China and India), lingering inflation and USD concerns, and newly instated regulation elevating the reserve status of physical gold held on central bank balance sheets.

Why investors like it:

• It’s tangible and globally trusted.
• It often performs well when real interest rates fall, or the U.S. dollar weakens.
• It hedges against geopolitical shocks and currency debasement.

The downside:

Gold doesn’t generate income — no yield, no dividends. When Treasury yields rise, holding gold can feel expensive. And while it’s been stable over decades, short-term price swings can still surprise investors.

Bitcoin: The Digital Disruptor

A decade ago, few would have imagined Bitcoin being mentioned in the same breath as gold. At 16 years old and counting, it is no longer fair to discount this space as an experiment or dismiss its role, positioned properly, in an investment portfolio. Following the approval of multiple Bitcoin ETFs and a friendly new administration in 2024, mainstream adoption accelerated, bringing institutional credibility and volatility in equal measure.

Why investors like it:

• Limited supply: By design, only 21 million coins will ever exist.
• Accessibility: Easy to buy and transfer globally, and now via regulated ETFs.
• Decentralization: Immune (in theory) to irresponsible government monetary policy.

The downside:

Bitcoin can still be highly volatile and does carry a level of correlation to broader risk appetite and liquidity. A 10% daily swing is possible, and regulation remains a wildcard. Still, we have seen this range of price volatility tighten over time, and a small allocation could promote healthy uncorrelated returns that further a portfolio’s diversification.

Treasury Bills: Backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government

Then there are Treasury bills — the boring but beautiful backbone of safety. Though yields have fallen, Treasuries remain a tried-and-true strategy for de-risking portfolios, with the least amount of volatility amongst the group.

Why investors like it:

• Virtually impossible to default (U.S. government-issued).
• High liquidity and near-zero credit risk.
• Provides decent income generation.

The downside:

• T-Bills protect principal but not purchasing power. If inflation stays elevated, real returns can be marginable.
• Limited upside —steady yield and “lock-in” to prevailing market rates.

 Diversification: Making risk work for you

At the end of the day, what’s most important with investing is not about hiding from risk — it’s about diversifying it to better position your returns with the least amount of volatility. We believe that the key to investing in today’s environment is not just about understanding your options, but appropriately sizing their allocation in a portfolio. By consulting with one of our CFP professionals, we are able to better learn and understand your future goals to align those with a portfolio that meets your individual needs. Our investment team is constantly assessing new strategies and refining our process to design holistic portfolio strategies that address today’s unique challenges and opportunities.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.​